In the run-up to Global Policy Forum, held in Yaroslavl on September 7-8 mottoed 'The Modern State in the Age of Social Diversity' one of its participants Director of French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), founder of the Evian Forum Thierry de Montbrial gave an exclusive interview to the special reporter of ‘RIA News’ in Paris, Vladimir Dobrovolskiy.

- Participants of the international conference on Libya reconstruction held last week in Paris focused in particular on providing financial assistance to the new government. As for you what are the priorities?
- This problem is many-sided and cannot be considered just from one side. Financial issue is an important one since the country needs money to pay to employees, etc. They have such money because new government has got secret treasures of Colonel Gaddafi.
But before that the war shall be stopped. There are still people ready to make war. Gaddafi is still not seized and his tribes continue to support him.
Another issue is restoration of viable state. That will take some time. Libya is a complex state as we have known it long ago. And it won’t be easy to build there a democratic state.

- The UNO announced sending Civil Mission to Libya. Would it be able to provide relevant aid in state reconstruction taking into account the fact that war is still in progress?
- I don’t see any reason why shouldn’t they send the Mission now. In the current situation presence of international agencies is relevant. The Middle East is a very complex region. That makes no sense to wait for pacification to send some international organizations. They are useful when some regions have problems.
- What difficulties could occur with Libya restoration?
- Speaking of money in this country I shall underline it is very rich country as compared with the state of its population. They shouldn’t have any money problems. But there are a lot of political problems. For over 40 years Libya had been ruled by a bold dictator. It is ethnically dissociated, and its political stabilization is a rather complex task.
However it’s important that we don’t face the choice: dictatorship or chaos. It’s sorrowful for mankind to make such kind of choice.
To reconstruct a unified state is also a very important factor. If Libya falls into several states or change its borders, it will be a very dangerous case. The main questions now are: Would Libya stay a single state? And is it possible to set democracy regime in the country?
- Is the National Transitional Council of Libya able to reconcile, unify and reconstruct the country?
- Now we are in extremely sensitive situation. First military invasion started with too little understanding of the situation on the ground. We’ve just started to get understanding of the main players, etc. Such issues shall be solved by the Libyans themselves. Revolutions could give power never existed before. The International Community shall track and pragmatically accompany this process. But we cannot take decisions on governors. And this situation will be extremely difficult.
- Is it necessary to send the Mission on state stabilization to avoid post-revolution chaos?
- I think any military invasion could be discussed but the decision can take only the UNO after deep study of local conditions. However it’s obvious that all the Libyans who took part in the war and lost their relatives will wish to get their own stake. This is a political problem. May be we shall sent the Mission but it shall be made with good knowledge of existent powers.
- Does it mean that falling Gaddafi regime on Libyan part was encouraged not only by insurrectionary movement headed by the National Transitional Council of Libya.
- I don’t think we can speak of joint forces headed by the National Transitional Council. That is a revolutionary movement, and apparently they have a lot of fractions with each of them protecting their interests and needs. If you wish to know whether Al-Qaeda was involved there, I can say that Al-Qaeda elements probably took part in the conflict. But I hardly could piece allocation of forces together.
- If the UNO decides to send its Mission to the state, who can participate in it?
- We will see. But it surely won’t be Russia. It was against this campaign.
Today in the times of world evolution we shall avoid forming non-democratic alliances of states that are systematically supporting dictatorship. I realize it quite well that dictatorship overthrow is a risky campaign entailing undesirable effects. We shall not create an image that there is a solemn alliance of authoritarian regimes, since they are always supporting dictators to protect themselves.
I’m one of those who very carefully treat military campaigns since they are always risky. But Gaddafi personality is an anachronistic phenomenon in the modern world. I understand Russian foreign policy quite well but it shouldn’t seem that Russia always takes side to dictatorships.
- President of the French Republic Nikolas Sarkozy declared that Muammar Gaddafi shall be arrested and after that the Libyans shall decide on his extradition to the International Criminal Court (ICC) or judgment within the country. Which variant is more favorable for Gaddafi himself?

- Falling dictators fate can be various. In case of Saddam Hussein there was quite different situation. Would Gaddafi be caught pitted as Saddam Hussein and would he have the same end? Would Gaddafi occur in another country? Would he be killed or detained? It’s too hard to guess. Just take the story with Osama Bin Laden. They needed ten years to execute him. I don’t think it’s the main issue. The important thing he has lost power and we’re stepping into new stage.
- Where can he take refuge in theory?
- In the country that didn’t sign the treaty on extradition of the wanted by the International Criminal Court warrant. Some countries didn’t sign this treaty. Among them are the USA, Russia, and China. But I don’t think he could be found in these countries. In theory such countries could accept him, but in practice it would be too inconvenient for them. But should he be in any African country, this will do no good as for Gaddafi himself so for this country.
- Could we avoid the influence of situation in Libya, other North Africa countries and Syria on security of this region and European states?
- Unfortunately we cannot permanently control all the events took place in the world. In 1988 I didn’t meet anyone in the West countries and in the East who could think of the USSR breakup.
As regards Syria no one around it wants the Assad regime to fall down. Russia and China are too conservative in this regard. Iran is certainly too: its cooperation with Syria through the so called Shia union helps it to contact with Lebanon. Arab countries don’t want West countries to be engaged in the Middle East. West countries are too cautious in relations with Syria.  Tweet