In the run-up to Global Policy Forum held in Yaroslavl on September 7-8 mottoed 'The Modern State in the Age of Social Diversity' Director of the Institute for the Advancement of the Social Sciences at Boston University Liah Greenfeld gave an interview to the personal correspondent of ‘RIA News’ in Washington Maria Tabak.

- Mrs Greenfeld, how do you think, what key factors can determine the future of relations between the USA and Russia? Could for instance the appointment of Republican president to the White House disrupt the so called ‘reload’?

- I think that obsession with relations between the USA and Russia seems to be kind of out-of-date against present worldwide trends. Future of both countries, and in particular of Russia, depends on China today. Against the background of China the state of relations between the USA and Russia as such does not matter for China at all. As you know Russian population is getting down. Its amount is extremely low. What does the number 143 million mean against steadily growing 1.3 billion in China? It’s not America that you shall have interest in. Think, there is great unpopulated territory between Moscow and China. There are no people there at all. Who will work there? China is almost overpopulated.

And the US concern itself with its own problems, whilst its time went by. That looks simply ridiculous. China again is getting a prevalent world society. It has already a prevalent world economy. And that occurs not due to the fact that the USA is loosing their positions, but due to uprising of Asia. That is inevitable and this process cannot be stopped.

- How was Asia uprising reflected on the USA positions in the world?

- I’ll give just simple example. Little cats and dogs live in your garden. Sometimes they get along, and sometimes they argue. When you see just those cats and dogs you are concentrated just on them. But when a huge bear appears and goes straight to this garden, cats and dogs’ relations lose any importance.

Asia uprising will touch upon all west countries, since it means the end of European civilization domination over the world. At the world policy will be determined by relations between Asian states and their interests. Neither the USA nor Russia is realizing this fact. That signs their complete blindness and self-absorption.

- As for you, which place will the Arab world take on this world view?

- I don’t think it will play any part. It’s a splinter of European civilization. In the course of history Europeans were constantly conflicting with each other or with the Arab world. But in a view of new world trends that does not matter. It’s an important point that China has interest in oil and gas source countries. And all processes will be subordinated to the interests of China. Both the USA and Russia shall think of building up good relations with new superpowers, not with each other.

- Apart form China there is India, country with rapidly growing population and great potential.

- Sure, India plays a very important part. It seems to become the second prevalent society and the second world economy after China. But as civilization India greatly differs from China. Historically these countries have had very amicable relationships based on cooperation. India is the country with fatalistic culture. It will recognize China’s leadership. I don’t think India will become a competitor for China.

- Does the USA have any chance to stay if not a leader then one of economical leaders?

- As early as in 2001 ‘Economist’ magazine reported that China will become the first world economy to 2020. And Japan is long being among world leaders. It’s a tiny country, without any resources, but it’s so strongly motivated that keeps holding leading positions.

Anyway the US is losing its positions. Their economy is not the first in the world while China having a great market is overtaking them in GDP amount. China will sure become the greatest economy. The USA and the whole European world, including Russia, shall realize that China will take their place.

Main reason of economical crisis is ‘guard mount’ in the world. That is to a far greater extent is psychological crisis than economical. As the years go by in a broad sense west countries will realize it and take new positions in new political landscape. The US may get good position but anyway not a leading one. And Russia won’t surely take the leading position; it won’t be able to compete. Let’s again get back to the example with little cats and dogs.

- The issues of changing political and economical map will also be discussed at Yaroslavl Forum. What way out of this situation can have the USA and Russia based on your picture of the future world? How could they be painted into this picture, if, on your point of view, they aren’t able to stay leaders?

- Our place is to a greater extent determined by wisdom of policy that we will pursue positioning ourselves down into new political and economical world map. We can be as happy as Switzerland now. This country has refused from all kinds of competitiveness and lives calm happy life. That is what we shall do. That is the only choice: to live calm quiet happy life, or to loose this happiness at all.

 

Author: ‘RIA News’, 25.08.2011

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