In the run-up to Global Policy Forum II held in Yaroslavl on September 7-8 mottoed 'The Modern State in the Age of Social Diversity' Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies of Washington DC. Edward Luttwak gave an interview to the personal correspondent of ‘RIA News’ in Washington Maria Tabak.

- Mr. Luttwak, how do you think, why notwithstanding ‘reload’, can real tangible examples of the US and Russia cooperation be counted digitally?

- Now diplomatic community wishes to make our relations better, but domestic policy is wholly against it. And it will stay the same. The whole world laughs at the fact that the USA and Russia don’t cooperate. On strategic point of view absence of cooperation is not profitable, but it is beneficial on political point. It is not a problem for prevailing authorities to pursue effective foreign policy or democracy. It is important for them to keep as much power as possible and friendly relationships here are of no use.

- For whom in particular you think is it unprofitable to have comprehensive cooperation of two countries?

- There is almost no positive propaganda in Russia. Mostly it’s negative: endless censure of the USA and their allies. There is some sense in it, and this is the sense of Moscow policy. Policy pursued by Russian government is evident – to keep the idea of outside world enmity towards Russia, to assure everybody that foreigners stay up nights searching for new ways to do harm to Russia.

But there are problems with America as well. Since the ‘Cold War’ there has not been anything that would make the USA get to like Russia. There were some positive moments, but bad were prevalent. That is policy. Should diplomatic community find any ways to move this problems away, cooperation of two countries will come to the next level. Thus there are problems of both parties.

- Is there any way out of current situation? What should be changed to direct political will forward cooperation?

- There is one simple example. Until 1914 British government had been treating Russia very unfriendly due to demolitions and other matters. But against danger from Germany policy was set aside, strategy was more important than policy. There is no any aggressive third party, and there is no cooperation between Russia and the USA. If China starts to show aggression, not military of course, two countries will start to cooperate. In this case policy will be also set aside. But now it is prevalent.

- And if it will be vice versa. Are there any factors able to reduce ‘reload’ to zero? Recently Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said that if the Republicans such as John Caile and Mark Kirk, come to power, all programs of cooperation with Russia will be automatically scraped.

- I wouldn’t say so. The USA and Russia have always been cooperating in such areas as nonproliferation, even in the times of the ‘Cold War’. It goes without saying that nowadays cooperation is ten times wider, and it will always stay with Barack Obama. The question is not the personality of governor in Washington or in Moscow, the question is policy of the parties.

- As for you, what are the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the USA in ballistic missile defense? Moscow demands written guarantees on nondirectionality of Pan-European ABM (anti- ballistic missile) System to Russia, and the USA want them to believe on their bare word. Besides Russian representatives used to declare that it’s still not clear for them which role the USA leave for Russia in Pan-European ABM System.

- If the matter were security of the USA and Russia, they would come to agreement atonce, if you like. Russia could play a great role in setting up Pan-European ABM System. Everybody knows that Americans have more developed electronics and everybody knows that missiles used in America are produced in Russia. The ABM System consists of electronics and missiles. Taking into account Russian ability to construct missiles Russia evidently could play a major role in Pan-European ABM System. But it would be real only if policy let. Russia cannot cooperate in setting up Pan-European ABM System since it is Moscow priority to keep up an idea that Russia is surrounded by enemies. I shall stress that now we’re dealing not with the heritage of the ‘Cold War’, but with todays policy.

- Let’s speak of another issue. Now the USA is passing through economically difficult period. The decision of Standard & Poors (S&P) Agency to decrease US credit rating added fuel to the fire. How important is this event for the USA up to you? Is the USA coming through the next era, as a number of experts, including Russian, say?

- At first sight S&P’ opinion itself is not too important since it shall determine the extent of Exchequer Stock security. And as you know security price even went up after S&P’s announcement. Thus judging by appearances agency’s opinion does not matter anything.

Actually Americans view of this matter is quite controversial. They think that the USA is going instable financial way, that there is no any chance to neutralize and level down deficit, and to control public debt having social programs as Medicare, Medicaid and program of social insurance. That is why everybody agrees that huge reduction of the federal budget shall be made. Thus you can see, although S&P’ opinion is not so important, it reflects true economic situation. America shall experience great changes to stay a powerful country. Everybody agrees with this point, there are just disputes around the amount of reductions and tax levies. And those disputes will be settled very soon since everybody has this threat: deadlines after which all reductions will be made automatically.

- You plan to participate in Global Policy Forum 'The Modern State in the Age of Social Diversity' that will be held in Yaroslavl on September 7-8 under the auspices of President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev. What in particular do you want to discuss first of all and to hear?

- One of the greatest achievements of Russia for all times, having just some unpleasant exclusions, is successful keeping multiethnic structure of society. There were some conflicts following the breakup of the Soviet Union, but taking into view the fact that there were living about 60 ethnicities, and there were also threat of 300 interethnic conflicts, with three of them happened, the greatest success is evident.

Multiethnicity and multiculturalism are the necessary basis for constructing democracy. Following the USA formation, founders said the USA could have democracy just because the states differed from each other greatly, excluding the fact that everybody spoke English. There were slaveholders in Virgin, those who were against slavery in Massachusetts, Catholics in Maryland, Quakers in Pennsylvania, Puritan in New England. There were also economic differences, such as difference of all points of view. If society is similar, it is false democracy, conformism tyranny: everybody thinks alike and there is no another opinion. Thus I believe ability of Russia to become democracy will be increased due to its multiethnicity.

 

Author: «RIA News», 22.08.2011

Tweet